People are supposed to die when they're old, not when they're still in their prime. Yet in 2011 so many of these athletes seem to have been snuffed out prematurely. Or were they?
Was I unduly influenced by reading the obituaries of five famous athletes who died in their 40s, four in their 30s, and four in their 20s? When they were born, they had life expectancies of just over 70 years. Today, life expectancy for newborns is 78. They shouldn't die so young.
Moreover, when I read the news obituaries every day in The New York Times, as is my wont, I immediately focus on the headlines, which disclose the ages of the deceased. Those ages seem to be to me more "normal," that is, they are the ages of "old" people, not those in their 20s or 30s or 40s. Indeed, today's online Times notes the deaths of a 94-year-old judge and an 86-year-old singer. I can live with those, so to speak. (Though for some of us, 86 doesn't seem that old anymore.)
So, in the spirit of one who has too much time on his hands, I set to work to test a hypothesis based on my reaction to the Sports Illustrated article: Athletes die younger than non-athletes.
This, of course, is a heretical notion. We all know that exercise and sports are good for soul and body. Well, testing benefits to the soul is a more difficult experiment than I can devise. But perhaps I can discern, through an elementary data analysis, whether famous athletes' bodies are at greater risk than those of us more sedentary types.
So I went through the Sports Illustrated list of farewells and eliminated the several non-athletes -- agents, writers and such. I did include coaches, because most coaches were active athletes in their previous lives. I was left with 60 famous athletes who died in 2011. And their ages. Their average age was calculated to be 62.5 years (median age: 65.0).
As I suspected, they were young. But how young? Well, for starters, much younger than life expectancy is now, and even much younger than their life expectancy was when they were born. But how much younger than, say, a similar-size cohort of other people? Say, famous non-athletes.
For this calculation, I went today to the online Times, which, had a list of just over 60 news obituaries -- those of people famous enough for the Times to have written an article about them when they died. The sample I used started with deaths on Dec. 13, 2011, and continued through this afternoon. After culling out several athletes on the list, I was left, coincidentally, with 60 people -- or, rather, former people.
The result? An average age at death for famous non-athletes of 81.3 years (median age: 82.0).
Not satisfied with just this one list, I found another compilation in the Times of famous people who died during the entire year 2011. After weeding out the athletes, I was left with 125 obituaries. The results: an identical average age of 81.3 years (median age: 84).
This is about 17 to 19 years longer than the athletes' age of death, depending on whether one uses average or median as the measure. Let's call it 18.
The conclusion?
Famous non-athletes live almost two decades longer than famous athletes.
Almost two decades! That's mind-boggling. A small difference would be explainable as within the margin of error. But two decades? There must be some statistical significance.
The comparison is even more startling when comparing deaths by decades of their lives, as shown in the chart. In the four decades of their lives, from their 20s through their 50s, a total of 27 athletes died, compared with only two non-athletes. Or at the other end of the mortality spectrum, only two athletes survived until their 90s, compared with 17 non-athletes.
I titled this piece facetiously, or so I thought at the start. But maybe it isn't facetious. Perhaps sports at its highest level does come at a price. We now know the impact that contact sports have on hips, knees, shoulders, the back, and other parts of the body, and we also have recently been made aware of the surprisingly high rate of concussions in football and hockey. It's conceivable that there are yet further insults to the system that are the cost of becoming a world-class athlete. Years and years of extended practice and high-level competition may do damage to the body that diminish the famous athlete's lifespan.
In any event, my fingers are getting pretty exhausted from all this typing, so I've decided to stop now before I press my longevity luck.
Appendix
60 Famous-Athlete Deaths 2011 (Sports Illustrated, Dec. 26, 2011)
| Greg Halman, 24, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rick Rypien, 27, hockey | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Derek Boogaard, 28, hockey | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jeret Peterson, 29, skiing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dan Wheldon, 33, racecar driver | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Robert Traylor, 34, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wade Belak, 35, hockey | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margo Dydek, 37, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Orlando Brown, 40, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chester McGlockton, 42, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hideki Irabu, 42, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lorenzo Charles, 47, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Armen Gilliam, 47, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dave Duerson, 50, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Kent Hull, 50, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ron Springs, 54, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Seve Ballesteros, 54, golf | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Drew Hill, 54, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Charlie Lea, 54, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mike Mitchell, 55, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lee Roy Selmon, 56, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Socrates, 57, soccer | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Grete Waitz, 57, marathon | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Randy Savage, 58, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nikolai Andrianov, 58, gymnastics | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mike Flanagan, 59, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rick Martin, 59, hockey | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Larry Finch, 60, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bob Forsch, 61, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Paul Splittorff, 64, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bubba Smith, 66, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Joe Frazier, 67, boxing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gale Gillingham, 67, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| John Mackey, 69, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Walt Hazzard, 69, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Vasili Alexeyev, 69, weightlifting | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Peter Gent, 69, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Woodie Fryman, 70, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jim Northrup, 71, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Matty Alou, 72, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dave Gavitt, 73, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Harmon Killebrew, 74, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dave Hill, 74, golf | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cookie Gilchrist, 75, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Don Chandler, 76, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wes Covington, 79, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ollie Matson, 80, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ryne Duren, 81, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| John Henry Johnson, 81, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Al Davis, 82, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dick Williams, 82, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chuck Tanner, 82, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ed Macauley, 83, basketball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Duke Snider, 84, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Joe Perry, 84, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Andy Robustelli, 85, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Joe Steffy, 85, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pete Pihos, 87, football | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Marty Marion, 93, baseball | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Jack LaLanne, 96, bodybuilder 60 Famous-Non-Athlete Deaths (Dec. 13, 2011 to mid-afternoon, Jan. 2, 2012 from the New York times online, 1/2/12)
|


Ben: Despite your hard work, the analysis has a serious system flaw. The two lists come from East Coast (read New York) publication, a practice which journalists refer to as East Coast bias. Those who live on the West Coast are not prone to the multiple risks of the East, such as pneumonia, cars sliding on ice, snow shoveling, etc. Oh, there are a few major, major CA figures in the lists--like Al Davis (who would be a good one to use for your followup on longevity of the soul). But most of those in CA who die young do so in drive-bys, even though they are fanous in their own right.
ReplyDeleteMel Opotowsky
Fascinating!! Long curious about what makes for a long and healthy life, I have noticed similar trends (am I imagining that scientist types tend to live longer?).
ReplyDeleteIt is, of course, possible that the sample is necessarily skewed by the fact that athletes tend to make their mark -- and thus warrant a New York Times obituary -- at an earlier age than do other professions. Nonetheless, I think that you are on to something here.
Mel,
ReplyDeleteWell, Mel, good try, but no cigar. Were there still a remaining newspaper west of the Mississippi, I would have happily used it for obituary data. Maybe I could do next a piece on newspaper deaths -- L.A. Times? San Francisco Chronicle? Et al.
Ben
Deborah,
ReplyDeleteI also think a skewing may come from sports reporters, who tend to be younger, not knowing about athletes who performed in the 1940s and 1950s. In any event, I didn't do a real analysis -- it was just an observation. Someone else ought to do do the analysis
Thanks, Ben. I needed an excuse not to go to the gym today. I'm sure you're on to something. I think the problem starts with inflammation, which is necessary to recover from physical exertion, but has other, long-term side effects, especially on the immune system, when the exercise and consequent inflammation are extreme. There's a connection between chronic inflammation and heart disease, Alzheimer's and many forms of cancer. http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=chronic-inflammation-cancer
ReplyDeleteA search on "inflammation immune athlete" turns up stuff like this:
"Exercise produces pro-inflammatory immune system responses and oxidative stress that play a role in repair and remodeling of muscle tissues. Intense exercise carries this response further, and over the long-run can produce immune system suppression and autoimmune-type responses."
- Nigel Searle
Nigel,
DeleteNice hearing from you, and liked your coment.
Ben
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Dear Ben,
ReplyDeleteIt's nice to stumble across your blog. Interesting article. I remember when Lyle Alzedo died at 43, he blamed steroid use for his poor health and claimed that 90% of athletes used steroids.
You rented a Compaq monitor from me once in Chicago where I demanded your credit card number, an event you won't likely recall, but it was pleasure to meet both you and L.J. Sevin at that time... even through my embarrassment.
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Hi Ben, I came across your blog because I am a medical student at Weill Cornell, and we just had a lecture by your eponymous endowed chair at HSS.
ReplyDeleteYou put forth an interesting hypothesis--essentially sports at the professional level is strenuous enough to cause premature death. Your evidence in what we may call an epidemiological study is then provided in the obituaries in several national newspapers. I would be curious to see what sort of extensions of the hypothesis you can make. Can you stratify the athletes by type and strenuousness of the sport? For example, do you expect professional football players to die younger and suffer more musculoskeletal and neurodegenerative diseases than nonprofessional athletes? The case of Muhammad Ali would be the cannonical example. Also, would the contrapositive be true, do low impact professional athletes, i.e. professional swimmers live longer? Both of these assume that morbidity and mortality is due to physical insult, and not added stress of competition or general cardiovascular effects. Also, what sorts of bias may be present in this study. Is it really randomized? More specifically, when does an athlete become famous, early 20s, maybe maybe 30s? What about other famous people, probably it is a more slow rise to fame than the meteoric career of star athletes. Another way of looking at this, is the average age of all famous athletes younger than other famous people, and thus those famous people who would have died young succumb before they become famous.
Just procrastinating; we all enjoy your lounge at Sloan-Kettering.
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